Market Overview 2018-07-17

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The EUR/USD is trading just north of the 1.1700 major technical level ahead of a Tuesday that will see market focus shift to upcoming US events with a thin calendar slated for the European session. There were some relevant macroeconomic news coming from both shores of the Atlantic, although they had little saying on price action. In the EU, the goods trade balance surplus shrunk in May to €16.5B amid a fall in exports combined with an increase in imports. The US released June retail sales, which were up by 0.5% as expected, while the control group reading remained pat.

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Market Overview 2018-07-16

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Euro rises as US Dollar eases on the day of Trump-Putin meeting. The risk sentiment eased on Monday with the Euro trading slightly higher on Monday against the US Dollar at around 1.1700 before the high profile Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki. After hitting its best level since early July, the US Dollar witnessed some profit-taking on Friday following a setback from import prices and consumer confidence data.

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Market Overview 2018-07-09

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On Friday, the most anticipated macro-economic news release were the non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate. The NFP rose by 213k in the previous month, while the consensus estimate was creation of 195k jobs. The jobless rate came with an unexpected result where it rose to 4.0% from 3.8%, thus missed the expectation that it would remain at the same level, while wage inflation grew 2.7% on an annualized basis in June.

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Market Overview 2018-01-08

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Last week ended with the publication of disappointing NFP jobs numbers from the USA; coming in at 148k, versus expectations of circa 190k. A peculiar number suggesting that retailers, working on ever tightening margins, laid off employees earlier than expected during the Xmas season. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, whilst the underemployment rate, which some analysts cite as the more relevant and true reflection of the USA unemployment situation, crept up to 8.1%. Another metric which rose, which appears to be dismissed as irrelevant despite it being classed as “hard data”, was the balance of trade deficit; coming in at -$50.5 per month for November, projecting a circa -$600b yearly deficit.

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Market Overview 2018-01-05

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Jobs data published on Thursday for the USA painted an optimistic backdrop to the encouraging manufacturing figures published on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims were down, as are continuous claims. The ADP numbers, the precursor to the NFP number, came in above the forecast of 190k, at 250k. Challenger job cuts came in at a stunning level, at -3.6% and circa 36k for December, it’s the lowest print since 1990. Traders (and the machines) also had time to analyse the latest minutes from the FOMC/Fed monetary policy meeting held in December.

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Market Overview 2018-01-04

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The ISM manufacturing index for the USA came in at 59.7 for December, construction spending rose by 0.8% in November to a record annual high, whilst new orders recorded a 69.4 reading for December. This positive news extended beyond impacting equity values, the news also caused the U.S. dollar to rise versus its three main peers; yen, euro and sterling. On Wednesday evening The Fed released the minutes from their December FOMC rate setting meeting and the release contained few surprises. The committee voiced their concerns on inflation being below the 2% target, whilst suggesting that the tax cuts, which will cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, may have a healthy trickle down effect on consumers’ spending ability, thereby increasing inflation.

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Market Overview 2018-01-03

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FX markets burst into life on Tuesday morning, as Tokyo and Sydney opened. Once the London market opened currency movements accelerated dramatically, with several currency pairs whipsawing violently, in a wide range throughout the day. These conditions offered up some excellent trading opportunities for scalpers and day traders, whilst exposing swing and position traders to difficult trading decisions. FX markets appeared to undergo a rebalancing exercise, after the extended and fractured holiday period, a common occurrence on the first full trading day of the year.

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Market Overview 2018-01-02

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Traders began to quietly re-engage with the FX markets, as Tokyo and Sydney opened on Monday evening/Tuesday morning. After a fractured ten day holiday period, over the Xmas and New Year period, London’s open will be closely monitored. Last week’s trading ended the year with gold (XAU/USD) finally breaking the critical 1,300 handle after slumping to 1,236 in early December. U.S. equity markets reached record highs during last week’s trading sessions, but with the Trump tax reduction programme now signed into law, analysts and traders may calculate that the tax breaks are now fully priced in.

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