Market Overview 2018-07-17

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The EUR/USD is trading just north of the 1.1700 major technical level ahead of a Tuesday that will see market focus shift to upcoming US events with a thin calendar slated for the European session. There were some relevant macroeconomic news coming from both shores of the Atlantic, although they had little saying on price action. In the EU, the goods trade balance surplus shrunk in May to €16.5B amid a fall in exports combined with an increase in imports. The US released June retail sales, which were up by 0.5% as expected, while the control group reading remained pat.

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Market Overview 2018-07-16

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Euro rises as US Dollar eases on the day of Trump-Putin meeting. The risk sentiment eased on Monday with the Euro trading slightly higher on Monday against the US Dollar at around 1.1700 before the high profile Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki. After hitting its best level since early July, the US Dollar witnessed some profit-taking on Friday following a setback from import prices and consumer confidence data.

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Trading the Non-Farm Payroll Report

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The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report is a key economic indicator for the United States. It is intended to represent the total number of paid workers in the U.S., minus Farm Employees, Government Employees, Private Household Employees and Employees of Nonprofit Organizations. The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market.

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Market Overview 2018-07-09

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On Friday, the most anticipated macro-economic news release were the non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate. The NFP rose by 213k in the previous month, while the consensus estimate was creation of 195k jobs. The jobless rate came with an unexpected result where it rose to 4.0% from 3.8%, thus missed the expectation that it would remain at the same level, while wage inflation grew 2.7% on an annualized basis in June.

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Should I buy Bitcoin Futures?

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The wonderful world of futures contracts has finally caught up with the exciting new world of cryptocurrencies. If you pardon the pun, for Bitcoin, the futures is now. Futures contracts have been in use since the late 19th century. A futures contract is an agreement for the delivery of goods at a specified date in the future. The price is set at the beginning of the contract, and when the product is delivered, the original agreed price is paid. It is a method that was originally used for agriculture, but has spread to many other commodities. Today, commodities are generally traded as futures.

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Market Overview 2018-01-08

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Last week ended with the publication of disappointing NFP jobs numbers from the USA; coming in at 148k, versus expectations of circa 190k. A peculiar number suggesting that retailers, working on ever tightening margins, laid off employees earlier than expected during the Xmas season. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, whilst the underemployment rate, which some analysts cite as the more relevant and true reflection of the USA unemployment situation, crept up to 8.1%. Another metric which rose, which appears to be dismissed as irrelevant despite it being classed as “hard data”, was the balance of trade deficit; coming in at -$50.5 per month for November, projecting a circa -$600b yearly deficit.

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Market Overview 2018-01-05

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Jobs data published on Thursday for the USA painted an optimistic backdrop to the encouraging manufacturing figures published on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims were down, as are continuous claims. The ADP numbers, the precursor to the NFP number, came in above the forecast of 190k, at 250k. Challenger job cuts came in at a stunning level, at -3.6% and circa 36k for December, it’s the lowest print since 1990. Traders (and the machines) also had time to analyse the latest minutes from the FOMC/Fed monetary policy meeting held in December.

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The Advantages of Options

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Exchange-traded options first started trading back in 1973. But over the past decade, the popularity of options has grown in leaps and bounds. According to data compiled by the Options Industry Council, the total volume of options contracts traded on U.S. exchanges in 1999 was about 507 million. By 2007, that number had grown to an all-time record of more than 3 billion. 

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